SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232335
KYZ000-INZ000-240030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...
VALID 232335Z - 240030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186 CONTINUES.
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL
KY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY. CONVECTION ALONG THE OH RIVER HAS REINFORCED A SWD MOVING
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH
A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSHEAR /WITH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED BY MOST SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE AS SFC OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/...MAY LEAD
TO A MORE MARGINAL SVR THREAT WITH EWD PROGRESSION. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND HAIL MAY STILL EXIST...IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TORNADO WW 186 WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.
..ROGERS.. 04/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 36828664 38118612 38318517 38418416 38478357 38068329
37508358 37138509 36828664
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