SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010147
ARZ000-010245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 258...
VALID 010147Z - 010245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 258 CONTINUES.
RECENT TRENDS PER LIT WSR-88D INDICATED THE STORM OVER GARLAND
COUNTY AR WAS BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR /INFLOW NOTCH AND LOW LEVEL
ROTATION/ AND TRACKING ESE AT 25 KT. 00Z LIT SOUNDING SHOWED THE
CAP HAD WEAKENED SINCE 12Z WITH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AR INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MEANWHILE...
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ TO 40 KT PER LIT WSR-88D VWP DATA IS
RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SRH 420 M2 PER
S2/. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SHOWING EFFECTIVE INFLOW IS SURFACE BASED PROVIDES CONCERN
THAT THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO.
OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING INTO CENTRAL AR WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR SIMILAR TRENDS AND THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 35259278 35459201 35309130 34219132 34109201 33889315
34219440 34649438 35109327 35259278
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