SWODY1
SPC AC 070440
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...
BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...THIS DESPITE ONE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 08/00Z. THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL FOCUS ACROSS
MO/IL INTO IND EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHERE GRADUAL MOISTENING SHOULD
RESULT IN A ZONE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS EARLY TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PROVE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOISTEN ATOP RETREATING
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. HOWEVER WITH TIME A SIGNIFICANTLY VEERED
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN FRINGE OF WARM CONVEYOR. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BUT NOT PARTICULARLY CONVERGENT
OR FORCED ENVIRONMENT THEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HAIL WOULD BE
WARRANTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
...ELSEWHERE...
VERY STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AS TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S
TO NEAR 100F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK SUGGEST MUCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND NO APPARENT MECHANISM
FOR STORM INITIATION OTHER THAN STRONG HEATING IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FOR THIS
REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE TSTM/LOW SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS AS WELL AS
ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY IN BOTH OF THESE REGIONS
WILL PROVE TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE.
..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/07/2011
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