SWODY1
SPC AC 161608
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LARGE SCALE BLOCKING IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANCHOR
CYCLONIC CENTERS OVER THE ERN AND WRN US AND RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS SERN STATES TODAY UNDER
ERN LOBE OF BLOCK WHILE IN THE W ONE VIGOROUS IMPULSE ROTATES NWD
FROM NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVES ONSHORE NRN CA.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
GA WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GOOD SFC HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS AM
FROM SC/NC INTO THE DELMARVA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
HAVE REMOVED THE LOW PROBS OF SEVERE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE
AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND JUST E OF A VERY
SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT FROM SERN MT SWD THRU ERN WY. ANY WIND
THREAT BY THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINOR GIVEN THE CURRENT GRADIENT
THAT IS PRODUCING GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ANYWAY.
..HALES/ROGERS.. 05/16/2011
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