SWODY1
SPC AC 051557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS KS/NE THIS AM TO MID
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD AIR ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET WILL LEAD TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
FRONT NOW INTO NWRN MO/ERN KS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CONSIDERABLE SFC
HEATING...SBCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO CENTRAL AND
SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESPOND TO BOTH THE HEATING AND
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MO AND WITH
COOLING UPPER TEMPS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AS LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
..HALES/GOSS.. 05/05/2011
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