SWODY1
SPC AC 061942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED.
...MID ATLANTIC...
MIXING APPEARS TO HAVE LED TO WEAKER THAN FORECAST
INSTABILITY...INHIBITING STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO PA/OH. THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REFLECTS A LACK OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...CU FIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN NC/VA AS A WEAK VORT MAX/IMPLIED
ASCENT NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER WV/WRN VA PROGRESSES EWD. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR FORCING
WEAK ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS ISOLATED PRODUCTION OF SMALL HAIL
AND/OR DMGG WINDS.
...WEST TX...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. REF MD 0696 FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
...FLORIDA...
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A SLOWLY SWD MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA. DESPITE WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRENGTHENED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AS CORES QUICKLY COLLAPSE.
...ERN KS/WRN MO LATE TONIGHT...
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...BUT AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES.
..HURLBUT/GUYER.. 05/06/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011/
...FL...
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS SRN HALF OF FL
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY. WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BRUSHING THE
REGION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED STORM
DOWNDRAFTS WHILE MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL
POTENTIAL.
...MID ATL TO PA/OH...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM SC/NC
NWD AND NWWD TO ERN OH AND PARTS OF PA. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 40SF/...SURFACE HEATING COUPLED
WITH COOLING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG. THE ONSET OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH
MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TO SUPPORT
HAIL AND TSTM WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LEVELS. FROM
SRN VA ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AOA 60KT WILL
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STILL BE TEMPERED BY LACK OF MORE
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY.
...WEST TX...
AN ARRAY OF STORM SCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
OF PECOS/FORT STOCKTON LATER TODAY. DESPITE ONLY SUBTLE INDICATIONS
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR TSTM INITIATION IN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE REGIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR
A SVR WIND GUST APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE TO SUSTAINING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.
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