SWODY1
SPC AC 051956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
ALBEIT A MARGINAL SCENARIO IN TERMS OF SEVERE MAGNITUDE...SPATIALLY
EXPANDED THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES TO INCORPORATE
ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER COLD POOL /AROUND -25C AT 500 MB/. WHILE COPIOUS SMALL
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...IT IS BELIEVED THAT MOST
HAILSTONES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. OTHERWISE...SEE
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW.
..GUYER.. 05/05/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011/
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E THIS
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS KS/NE THIS AM TO MID
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD AIR ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET WILL LEAD TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
FRONT NOW INTO NWRN MO/ERN KS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CONSIDERABLE SFC
HEATING...SBCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO CENTRAL AND
SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESPOND TO BOTH THE HEATING AND
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MO AND WITH
COOLING UPPER TEMPS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AS LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
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