SWODY1
SPC AC 040048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2011
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD TO E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A 100+ KT
WLY UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE THROUGH BECOMING
NEUTRALLY ORIENTED AS IT APPROACHES OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ADVANCE EWD.
...ERN PA...
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS ONGOING TSTMS EXTENDING FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY PA TO
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY PA PROGRESS ENEWD. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LOSS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND SOME CLOUD COVER FURTHER
INCREASING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AND THUS LIMITING NEW SURFACE
BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH MOVES EWD AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
...ERN GA/CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL VA...
AT 00Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL-SWRN VA SWWD THROUGH FAR WRN NC TO
UPSTATE SC AND EAST CENTRAL GA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVED JUST EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 50 KT/
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE REDUCTION OF
AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INHIBITION WILL SUPPORT A SPATIOTEMPORAL REDUCTION IN SURFACE BASED
TSTMS.
..PETERS.. 05/04/2011
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