SWODY2
SPC AC 030450
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE
SWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WED MORNING AND WILL DRIFT EWD...LIKELY
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER NY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A WEAK LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN NC...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
TO THE W...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ROUGHLY FROM SERN SD
INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE NC COAST EARLY BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
VERY SLOWLY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG IN THIS
REGION...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY WEAK...THUS SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
...ERN KS/NEB/SD...WRN IA/NWRN MO...
STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
NEB INTO THE MID MO VALLEY LATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WHILE
STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST ALOFT...CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY DUE TO LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
BUT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY BY AROUND
00Z...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF IT IS
NOCTURNAL...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY
AREAS.
..JEWELL.. 05/03/2011
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