SWODY2
SPC AC 141721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM THIS PERIOD...WITH A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST...A SECOND OVER THE EAST...AND A RIDGE TO
REMAIN ROUGHLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES NEWD
ACROSS CA/NV AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
WEAKER LOW SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THIS REGION...AND WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR...ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD...ACCUMULATION OF
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL
FLOW 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE SW ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION EXISTS WHERE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE.
THEREFORE...LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND APPEARS
WARRANTED INTO EARLY EVENING.
...S FL...
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG PRIMARILY THE E
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION APPEARS
TO EXIST -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR
HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS AREA.
..GOSS.. 05/14/2011
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