SWOD48
SPC AC 030752
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2011
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON FRI/D4...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS
A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BENEATH A WEAK NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WHILE STRONG HEATING MAY
RESULT IN CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE...ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE
PARTICULARLY SEVERE WITH ONLY 50S DEWPOINTS AND CAPPING CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL JET...BUT MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5...BUT
PREDICTABILITY AND OVERALL POTENTIAL DO NOT WARRANT SEVERE AREAS AT
THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT
BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO
TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE
PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN
SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.
..JEWELL.. 05/03/2011
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