SWOD48
SPC AC 090848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2011
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PREDICTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND LATE WEEK AS
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PORTRAY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. UTILIZING A
PREFERRED SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF TIMING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
LOW...APPEARS THERE MAY BE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HERE...MID-LEVEL 45-50 KT SWLY JET AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST FORCING AND AMPLE INSTABILITY TO YIELD
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO INTO WCNTRL IL.
BEYOND THURSDAY...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DEPICTED OWING TO
THE DECREASE IN PREDICTABILITY.
..RACY.. 05/09/2011
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