SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020031
ARZ000-MOZ000-020130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TO NERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020031Z - 020130Z
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ONLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. A WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1007 MB MESOLOW NEAR GGG WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN AR TOWARDS MEM. AS
ALLUDED TO IN MCD 684/685...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED N OF THIS
BOUNDARY FROM W-CNTRL THROUGH N-CNTRL AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S AND 50S. 00Z LZK RAOB SAMPLES THE
ELEVATED INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED AND THIS OUGHT TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ACTIVITY WHERE BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN
LARGEST. WITH ZERO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...ANY TORNADO THREAT IN
N-CNTRL AR WILL REMAIN NIL.
..GRAMS.. 05/02/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...
LAT...LON 34829196 33979378 34069415 34499433 35369334 36499152
36699095 36629064 36389039 35759062 35459075 34829196
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