SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070840
MOZ000-KSZ000-071015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070840Z - 071015Z
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND CENTRAL MO...WITH
ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS AND TOWARD SRN MO DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL WITH SOME EVENTS
APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH. DESPITE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...LIMITED COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR
A WW AT THIS TIME.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE
07Z ALONG AND JUST S OF I-70 FROM NERN KS /INVOF MHK/ TO CENTRAL MO
/BETWEEN SZL AND COU/. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG AN 850 MB
THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W-E ACROSS NRN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WITHIN A WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF 50-60 KT LLJ EXTENDING FROM OK
INTO ERN KS/WRN MO. TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN KS
AND CENTRAL TO SRN MO...PERSISTING THROUGH 12-15Z AS THE SWLY LLJ
VEERS TO WLY. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY MOST
MODELS WITH STORMS BEING FORCED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING SEWD WITHIN 50-60 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION WHILE THE LLJ PROVIDES A FEED OF MUCAPE UP TO
1000-1200 J/KG. THESE FACTORS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH.
HOWEVER...THE SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
7-7.5 C/KM APPEAR TO BE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.
..PETERS.. 05/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39079367 38519065 37589079 37059137 37139355 38049574
39159662 39079367
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment