MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0723

ACUS11 KWNS 110637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110637
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-110700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN TN AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...

VALID 110637Z - 110700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273
CONTINUES.

A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SWRN VA...PARTS OF
EXTREME ERN TN AND WRN NC. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN KY
SHOULD MOVE S OF WW 275 AROUND 08Z. GIVEN THIS FACTOR...WW 273 WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND/OR BE CANCELLED EARLY...WITH CONTINUED
MONITORING OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR INCREASE IN STRONGER
CORES. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A NEW WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED S OF
WW 275.

05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF
CHICAGO SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND...FAR SWRN OH AND THEN SSEWD
THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN KY TO ERN TN AND NERN-ERN GA. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED A PROGRESSIVE MCS TRACKING SSEWD THROUGH CENTRAL SC.
DESPITE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS
UPSTREAM ACROSS UPSTATE SC TO WRN NC...NEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK SSEWD ACROSS ERN KY TOWARD FAR SWRN VA. THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY A WLY 20-30 KT LLJ WITH MUCAPE 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND THIS
REGION RESIDING ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF EML/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS ACTIVITY MOVES SSEWD. AS THE LLJ VEERS
TO NWLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z...ACTIVITY OVER ERN KY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND TRACK INTO SWRN VA...ERN TN/WRN NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IF ERN KY ACTIVITY IS
SUSTAINED...THEN A NEW WW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 05/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 35298064 34688089 34318203 35098264 35748321 36548343
36958310 37448197 36848157 35298064

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