SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141702
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-141900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN SC...ERN NC INTO EXTREME SERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141702Z - 141900Z
MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO
SERN VA. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO
SERN VA. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...LOW 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WV AND RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS...AND FURTHER DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY ERODE THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. MODEST 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW EXISTS
OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS.
..DIAL.. 05/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34737952 35747796 36487717 36737634 36557600 35737589
35137632 34187840 33847964 34737952
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