MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0795

ACUS11 KWNS 161829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161829
NCZ000-162000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NC OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161829Z - 162000Z

A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...AND/OR A WATERSPOUT MOVING INLAND OVER
PRIMARILY THE OUTER BANKS OF NC ARE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE TO THIS THREAT AND LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE...A WW
IS NOT EXPECTED.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 55
S HSE TO 60 NE HSE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG AN APPARENT
NNWWD MOVING CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NNWWD TOWARD THE NC
OUTER BANKS PER TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT MOVING NNWWD. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAD
INDICATED PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH A STORM LOCATED 40 S
HSE AT 1815Z. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-35 KT SUPPORTS
MULTICELLS AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL...WEAKER INSTABILITY
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INLAND /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG INVOF AND N-S
OF HSE/ SUGGESTS STORM INTENSITY MAY WEAKEN AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE
COAST.

DESPITE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
SURFACE VORTICITY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SFC-3 KM CAPE OF
100-200 J/KG. THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO
POSSIBLE...AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE/TSTMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

..PETERS.. 05/16/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON 34277635 35467589 36207556 36127483 35557458 34387539
34127568 34277635

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