SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191730
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191730Z - 191800Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF NWRN TX
THROUGH WRN OK.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WEST CENTRAL KS WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ALONG AND INVOF THE
WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER AND THEN THROUGH CDS TO WEST CENTRAL TX.
ONGOING STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE
COMBINED WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM KING TO
CHILDRESS COUNTIES TX ARE SUPPORTING DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE NWD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN EXPECTED BACKING OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NNE WITH
TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY AS CELLS MOVE INTO CORRIDOR OF GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER VALUES OF EFFECTIVE SRH LOCATED ALONG AND
E OF THE DRY LINE.
..PETERS.. 05/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33420043 34680020 35900021 37020018 37009949 36979837
35859830 33589841 33409917 33420043
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment