SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191812
KSZ000-191915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191812Z - 191915Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
SFC ANALYSIS FROM 17Z PLACES A SFC LOW 3O MI W P28...WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT BULGING NWD INTO CNTRL KS. STRONG SSELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD AS FAR N AS W-CNTRL
KS...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG WITH
VERY LITTLE CINH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED IN RECENT SCANS W OF WICHITA. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND AS STORMS INTENSIFY...AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE WARM FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NWD.
..ROGERS.. 05/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37029894 37059974 38429992 38870003 39589979 39769910
39659782 38719697 37679638 37109675 37029894
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