SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191924
KSZ000-COZ000-192030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/E-CNTRL CO...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191924Z - 192030Z
THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL /SOME
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LIMITS/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/E-CNTRL CO
AND INTO FAR SWRN KS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT A FEW SMALL/LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO. THESE
STORMS HAVE LIKELY FORMED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MIDLEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. A RESERVOIR OF
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS BEING MAINTAINED AS SFC
PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE...EWD
ACROSS E-CNTRL CO AND BACK INTO SWRN KS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SOMEWHAT COOL FARTHER W /50-60S/...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250-500
J/KG...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER E ACROSS SWRN KS...THE THREAT REMAINS MORE
CONDITIONAL AS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO INITIATE...BUT IF STORMS
DEVELOP THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS /OWING TO A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND GREATER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS/ MAY EXIST.
..ROGERS.. 05/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38030226 37930331 37770454 38020518 38870511 39200460
39400385 39420256 39370156 38280074 37100071 37030106
37130166 37730193 38030226
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