SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201828
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AND CENTRAL AR...NERN TX...AND NWRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 312...
VALID 201828Z - 201930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 312 CONTINUES.
AT 18Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO A COLD POOL CONTINUING TO SHIFT EWD INTO SWRN MO...NWRN
AR AND SERN OK. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NERN TX/NWRN LA INTO WRN AR. THIS WARM SECTOR
COEXISTS WITH STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
ALONG A 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ ENHANCING EFFECTIVE SRH /200-400 M2 PER
S2/ FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. COUNTIES
LOCATED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD POOL/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN PART OF WW 312 HAVE A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
CAN BE REMOVED FROM THIS WATCH BY THE LOCAL WFOS.
MEANWHILE...THE TSTMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SRN MO ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM STRONGER DEEP LAYER SLY WIND
FIELDS...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER WEAKER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH EWD EXTENT.
THUS...EITHER EWD EXTENSION OF WW 312 OR THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH
ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..PETERS.. 05/20/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33019582 33119547 33729541 33809594 34159603 35319555
36209488 36399353 36409193 36149120 35109114 33929163
33929227 32709271 32199343 32129498 32099559 33019582
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