SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241615
NCZ000-VAZ000-241745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...VA AND NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...
VALID 241615Z - 241745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 354 WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP EWD INTO SE VA AND NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN VA IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT THE CONVECTION EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN SE VA AND NE
NC IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BETWEEN 7.5
AND 8.0 C/KM ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPING STORMS MAY HAVE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF A PERSISTENT
LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37647972 37048077 35958035 35647875 35377712 35997607
36797598 37657796 37647972
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