MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0954

ACUS11 KWNS 251602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251602
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN-CNTRL KY...NW-NRN TN...FAR SRN
IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 251602Z - 251630Z

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS BEING COORDINATED ATTM.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR SRN IL AHEAD
OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE ERN EDGE OF A CNTRL PLAINS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. VIGOROUS STORMS WILL ALSO INITIATE IN SCNTRL MO AND
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS STORM INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LINEAR STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL BUT STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE SHOULD
BECOME SUPERCELLS CONTAINING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AS A 50 TO 60
KT LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON...0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVELY HELICITIES WILL INCREASE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38378830 38509049 38149147 37299192 36199065 35908949
36078785 36348605 36808540 37468578 38108629 38378723
38378830

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.