SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251652
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-251815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251652Z - 251815Z
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND
CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM
DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH
RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN
CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER
PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A
BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34279379 35709309 36399217 36538867 36178817 35298827
34278903 33749129 33649269 33759341 34279379
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