SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261722
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN...NWRN GA...MOST OF AL...SERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...
VALID 261722Z - 261845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379
CONTINUES.
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER PROGRESSING
ACROSS ERN TN...NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS APPEAR TO BE FORMING SWWD TO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE...THE
NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH S/SW OF WW 379 IS UNCLEAR ATTM WITH
SPORADIC THREATS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SW TO NE ORIENTED
TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM JUST 20 S HSV TO 30 S JAN. TSTMS HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE OVER SERN MS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL LIKELY PEAK
IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE HEIGHT
GRADIENT RELAXES. DESPITE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...OVERALL
SETUP SHOULD YIELD SPORADIC REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE S MAY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS A
MORE ORGANIZED MCS/QLCS EVOLVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 05/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32488891 33668760 35048590 35748467 35698408 35418374
35118385 33608534 32168553 31908571 31638701 31398785
30608848 30388896 30608945 31218966 31958947 32488891
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