MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0994

ACUS11 KWNS 271624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271624
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...ERN PA...SE NY...WRN MA...SRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271624Z - 271800Z

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN PA AND SE NY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE
APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS
INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WRN EDGE OF A MOIST AXIS LOCATED
FROM ECNTRL VA NNEWD ACROSS MD INTO ERN PA ND SE NY WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE IN NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NWWD
ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIATION OF NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ON THE
ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT NEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 35
TO 40 KT WHICH WILL AID THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ANY LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY QUITE STEEP ACROSS
THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41507421 42037332 42477279 42997309 43187425 42827520
41957639 40937756 39557845 38327869 37997852 37687820
37777748 38367708 38997674 39477637 40507553 41507421

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