SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281811
MNZ000-WIZ000-281945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN...NW WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281811Z - 281945Z
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...WITH WW
ISSUANCE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN ND..WITH
A STRONG WSWLY JET EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO SRN MN AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE MARGINAL ACROSS MN
/DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 45-55/ BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ML
CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG DEVELOPING. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF
OF MN NE INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION...WITH LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS OR
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE
RESULTING A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
ACROSS NWRN MN...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...BUT PROXIMITY TO COLD UPPER
LOW WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS.
..DEAN.. 05/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46059642 46739651 47619658 48269676 48769683 48599479
48509301 47809088 47179112 46569139 46109185 45669233
45239279 44909336 44769407 44749489 44919558 45089606
45479634 46059642
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