SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301840
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-302015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND/WESTERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301840Z - 302015Z
SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD. ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON /LIKELY BY 20Z/.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A 996 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN SD BETWEEN HURON AND ABERDEEN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN NEB NEAR/WEST OF NORTH
PLATTE...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTING
AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED CU FIELD NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB/. WITH STRONGER DPVA/IMPLIED ASCENT NOW
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AN INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
/INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/ INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION AS EARLY
AS 20-21Z.
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING
CINH AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...INITIAL MODAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SOME TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. STORMS
SHOULD ULTIMATELY CONGEAL THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVOLVING AS WELL.
..GUYER.. 05/30/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41320097 42809946 44969838 46039726 45889613 44649596
43879632 43109680 41709790 41059836 40479916 40630076
41320097
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