SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302033
KSZ000-302200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 302033Z - 302200Z
AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
CURRENTLY UNCLEAR GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITORED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU
NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL KS DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KS
JUST WEST OF THE HILL CITY AREA AS OF 2015Z. IN ACCORDANCE WITH
GLANCING DPVA AND ADDITIONAL STRONG MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE...THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT PRE-DARK SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN KS...ALTHOUGH ROGUE
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PROVIDED STORMS INDEED FORM...RELATIVELY STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH VEER-BACK-VEER
TYPE WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM PER REGIONAL
PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS IMPLY A LINEAR-TYPE
EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR WITH TIME. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF A MORE LINEAR-TYPE EVOLUTION OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT RELATIVELY
HIGH-BASED NATURE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIMIT SUCH
POTENTIAL. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A MORE CERTAIN
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.
..GUYER.. 05/30/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38770060 39870038 39609880 37249935 37150037 38770060
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