SWODY1
SPC AC 022000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY...
SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK. THE FIRST IS TO
ADD PARTS OF NW SD...SW ND AND ERN MT INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF BILLINGS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY...MOVING ACROSS THE AXIS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN ERN MT AND WRN ND. ANOTHER
CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO NARROW THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS ERN
MO AND WRN IL TO COINCIDE WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NRN MO MOVING
SEWD ACROSS ERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
EXIST WITH STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE A 5
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A THIRD CHANGE TO THE
OUTLOOK IS TO ORIENT THE 5 PERCENT HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS
ERN GA AND SC TO COINCIDE WITH THE MAXIMUM VALUES OF INSTABILITY
ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE
OUTLOOK ARE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THUNDER LINES. ONE SUCH
CHANGE IS TO ADD FAR NE WA...NRN ID AND FAR NW MT INTO A THUNDER
AREA WHERE SOME DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE AND CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING.
..BROYLES.. 06/02/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011/
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING WILL
MAINTAIN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS FROM AZ/NM INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS
IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S FROM ND SOUTHWARD. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE
DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM OVER
EASTERN NM...THEN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF CO/KS. STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. THE RISK AREA IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY NARROW WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING BY MID EVENING.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEB/SD BY
EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS
REGION...PROMOTING SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...MO/IL...
A PERSISTENT MCS REMAINS OVER IA/MO/IL THIS MORNING...WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THOSE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
RATHER STRONG HEATING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
IL. THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ALONG THE MS
RIVER. IF STORMS CAN FORM...ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FEW INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
RATHER LOW COVERAGE. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF AMPLE MOISTURE AND HIGH
CAPE...FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS OR HAIL.
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