SWODY2
SPC AC 031707
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SRN
GREAT LAKES AND MID-MO VALLEY...
...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE MODELS
FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SRN LAKE MI WWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN IA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINEAR MCS WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY AND NARROW THE THREAT
AREA TO COINCIDE WITH AN ENSEMBLED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FROM THE NAM...GFS...NAMKF AND SREF. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN NRN MO AND SRN IA WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
THE WRN END OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED IN ERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN CO MOSTLY DUE TO SFC
HEATING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGEST 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CO WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A THREAT
FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.
...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO SFC
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INITIATE FROM SE LA EWD ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.
..BROYLES.. 06/03/2011
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