SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011737
NJZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...DE...NJ...SE PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011737Z - 011900Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM SRN
VA NNEWD INTO SE PA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 3500 TO
4500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN PA...WRN MD AND ERN WV. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD INTO THE MCD AREA WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM LIKELY ALREADY EXIST WHICH
ALONG WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM
WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37167738 37167788 37327837 37647856 37867862 38297859
38757843 39297797 39697745 39897665 39807570 39557537
39017551 38617591 37407682 37167738
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