MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1050

ACUS11 KWNS 011820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011819
MEZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011819Z - 011945Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON.
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ACROSS SERN QUEBEC. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WRN AND NRN MAINE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MAINE AS THE MOIST AXIS MOVES EWD ENABLING A SEVERE
THREAT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE. AT MID-LEVELS...THE EXIT REGION OF A
WELL-DEFINED 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINE
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS CONTAINING AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IF A SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY IF LINEAR
MODE BECOMES DOMINANT.

..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 47076957 45947041 45387068 44477053 44147003 44066955
44256878 45126873 46526791 47046795 47386859 47406912
47076957

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