SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011855
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK...NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011855Z - 012100Z
A CLUSTER OF STRONG ELEVATED STORMS HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OVER NERN KS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. MORE RECENTLY...STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SWRN MO. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A WW IS UNLIKELY.
RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CINH HAS ERODED IN SERN KS/SWRN
MO WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS. WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG IN THIS
REGION...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL DEVELOP AS STORMS INTENSIFY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 30 KTS WILL
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..JIRAK.. 06/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 36409481 36669521 37059559 37799617 38159655 38569704
39089760 39719793 40099758 40209690 39979628 39779588
39409525 38999478 38469428 38109393 37729364 37199335
36799334 36599327 36079353 35939399 36239474 36419480
36409481
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