MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1079

ACUS11 KWNS 032053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032053
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM / SERN CO / NWRN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032053Z - 032200Z

ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE ON THE W
EDGE OF A SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RESERVOIR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
GIVEN A STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE WITH ADEQUATE
PW/S...AS INDICATED BY 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DATA...STORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP/FAVOR
ELEVATED TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING NE INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/. THE TCU VWP SHOWS GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SLY/S
VEERING AND INCREASING TO THE 40-50 KT RANGE AT 5-7 KM AGL. THIS
SHOULD FAVOR STORM MOTIONS TO THE NE AND LEAD TO STORMS EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO A LESS DRY AIR MASS ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND ADJACENT
AREAS. WITH DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS IN PLACE...ISOLD
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO AN OCCASIONAL
MICROBURST.

..SMITH.. 06/03/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33700498 36100438 37470344 37570268 36880212 35830250
34120363 33220442 33170482 33700498

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