SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032154
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-040000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/CNTRL GA...SRN/WRN SC...FAR SERN TN...FAR SWRN
NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032154Z - 040000Z
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS HAS ALLOWED SFC
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...HAVE RESULTED IN THE RECENT INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTION
OVER HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS COUNTIES IN NERN GA. REPORTS OF DMGG
WINDS...AND AN ESTIMATED ONE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL REPORT...HAVE
EMANATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY NEAR CLARKESVILLE GA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS BUILDING/TOWERING CUMULUS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF AGITATED CUMULUS OVER SC
AND GA NEAR AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL
TN TO NERN SC.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO EMANATE FROM THE LAND-OCEAN
INTERFACE WILL FOSTER ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA AMIDST A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS -- I.E. MLCAPE
AROUND 3500 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE MODIFIED 12Z PEACHTREE CITY
SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. WET MICROBURSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH COLLAPSING CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES YIELDING DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WITH THE
THREAT ENHANCED BY TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 20-25F.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS NOTABLY LESS THAN IT
WAS 24 HOURS AGO -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES 5 TO 10 KT
LOWER TODAY. THIS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO ENSUE...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE
CONVECTIVE MODE. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL
FAVOR THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...AUGMENTED BY NLY 20-30-KT-FLOW IN THE 2-4-KM-AGL LAYER
OBSERVED IN THE PEACHTREE CITY GA VWP. THE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
ENHANCED INVOF ANY MERGING COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
..COHEN.. 06/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 32967943 31968096 31788185 32078353 32918427 33678464
34138490 34748513 35288472 35668375 35598290 35168217
34678176 34018074 33887910 32967943
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