SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032232
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN GA...CNTRL/SRN AL...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA...FL
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032232Z - 040030Z
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED
TO NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT
THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INVOF A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
PROPAGATING NWD...WHILE LYING ACROSS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. NORTH OF THIS ZONE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OWING TO HOT SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MORE SPOTTY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ACROSS THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...DCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 1800 J/KG COULD
PROMOTE INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG SFC WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
20 KT OF NLY TO ELY FLOW IN THE 3-4-KM-AGL LAYER OBSERVED FROM
JACKSON MS AND BIRMINGHAM AL VWP DATA. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGER
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY MELTING PROCESSES AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE HOT BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A
PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MERGING COLD
POOLS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND A
SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. NEVERTHELESS...WITHOUT
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
..COHEN.. 06/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
SHV...
LAT...LON 30178497 30578666 30588933 30939163 31919200 32759131
33519006 33788895 33828699 33378507 32278376 31138319
30228350 30178497
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment