MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1082

ACUS11 KWNS 040038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040037
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-040230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEB/NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040037Z - 040230Z

PROBABILITIES FOR A WW ISSUANCE APPEAR LOW...BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...SOUTH OF GOODLAND INTO
AREAS WEST OF HILL CITY...JUST NORTH OF A WEAK/STALLING SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY HAVE INITIATED IN
RESPONSE TO A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...BUT APPEARS TO HAVE ROOTED IN THE MORE MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHERE CAPE MAY BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.

VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS STRONG
AND SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS LONG AS FORCING REMAINS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE FURTHER
THOUGH 02-03Z...WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
/30-40 KT AT 850/ PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
ONGOING STORMS...OR NEW ACTIVITY COULD FORM A BIT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR...JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER.

IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ABLE TO PERSIST AND CONSOLIDATE THIS
EVENING...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SIZABLE MID-LEVEL AND SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOLS.
THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/04/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38510197 39180183 39460182 39880217 40680194 40850079
41159895 41379666 40669616 39879698 39199817 38769969
38230185 38510197

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