SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041827
INZ000-ILZ000-041930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041827Z - 041930Z
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN OH
VALLEY PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FLATTENING PROCESS SHOULD LEAD TO A ZONE OF
MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SHIFTING INTO NRN IL/IND WHICH
WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE MI BREEZE. STRONG SUNSHINE HAS STEEPENED
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE
BREEZE...PER LATEST VIS IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA INTO NWRN IL WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING NOW OBSERVED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. RECENT HRRR MODEL
SUPPORTS ROBUST CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NRN IL/IND BY 19Z...AND
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY IT WOULD SEEM TO BE SUPPORTED BY
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. FOR THIS REASON A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED SOON.
..DARROW.. 06/04/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42188914 42078792 41538706 41718528 40618509 40518780
41489005 42188914
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment