SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071856
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-072030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WEST VIRGINIA...ERN KY...SRN/WRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071856Z - 072030Z
A MODEST CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND SLOWER ON ITS WESTERN FLANK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY OF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...BUT DISTINCT WEAKENING TRENDS
HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE LONGER TERM...LIKELY DUE TO WEAKENING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR. EVEN IF COLD POOL DYNAMICS
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...OR EVEN
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REINTENSIFICATION IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL OR
BECOME SPARSE IN COVERAGE. IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THOUGH...THAT STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD CEASE
BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 06/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 40588361 40488300 39668286 38678202 38488109 37858078
36958220 37218384 39328457 40588361
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