MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1128

ACUS11 KWNS 071952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071951
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-072145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NORTH DAKOTA AND N CNTRL/NERN
SOUTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071951Z - 072145Z

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE /NOW CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN ND...AND PROGGED TO MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST OF
FARGO ND BETWEEN NOW AND 22-23Z/ REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED BY VERY
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIVE
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF A PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT/DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
HEATING OF MODEST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. AND AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING.

STORMS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE FURTHER IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
BROAD INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...WHERE SHEAR BENEATH A 50-70+ SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER OR TWO...PERHAPS
INITIALLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED
BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST CAPE...APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45579699 45259887 45280053 45770142 46240150 46980185
47799857 47909723 46719674 45579699

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