SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102031
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...WRN/NRN OK...SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102031Z - 102300Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
STORM COVERAGE...NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A WW POSSIBLE.
MIDLEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER WRN TX/OK AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER
NM. THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CINH AND
RESULTED IN A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG IN SERN KS/NERN OK WITH VALUES
DECREASING SWWD. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.
..JIRAK.. 06/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32740159 33240106 33610050 34219994 34999933 35489904
35729863 35999830 36309787 36599738 36859696 37189655
37139610 36779596 36189624 35739678 35409707 34979748
34319819 33859865 33379914 32839979 32530011 32390043
32320088 32350127 32470155 32730163 32740159
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