SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121939
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-122115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE METRO AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN VIRGINIA/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...
VALID 121939Z - 122115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467
CONTINUES.
STORMS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...BUT STRONGEST ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN A SMALL BUT GROWING CLUSTER SOUTH OF THE
HARRISBURG/LANCASTER PA AREA. THIS APPEARS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. AS NORTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30
KT...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND RESULTING MODEST STORM INFLOW
APPEAR TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS BY 21-22Z. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGEST
STORMS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH A CONSOLIDATING/ STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL.
..KERR.. 06/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...
LAT...LON 39137741 39487686 39647638 39307623 38727661 38407681
38307725 38427779 38707803 39137741
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