MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1207

ACUS11 KWNS 131832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131832
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-131930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN 2/3RDS OF MISS / FAR SERN AR / FAR NERN LA / SE
LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131832Z - 131930Z

THE NEED FOR A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING WW 472 WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE COORDINATED AROUND 1930Z. THE THREAT FOR A SWATH OF
SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RESULTING IN A CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF
WIND DMG WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A FORWARD PROPAGATING
BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL AR ESEWD INTO NERN MS-NRN AL. A RESERVOIR OF
RICHER MOISTURE /PW VALUES 1.5-1.75 INCHES/ ALONG AND TO THE W OF
THE BOUNDARY ON THE ERN FRINGE OF A STRONG EML OVER THE SRN PLAINS
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. KNQA SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
WELL DEFINED DOWNBURST SIGNATURE --INDICATIVE OF LIKELY WIDESPREAD
DMGG WINDS-- MOVING INTO THE GREATER MEMPHIS AREA AS OF 1800-1830Z.
GIVEN THE COMPONENT OF NWLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THE ORGANIZED
STORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD DOWN THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARDS THE NRN GULF COAST BY EARLY
EVENING. CURRENT LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THE BOWING SYSTEM
INVOF THE JACKSON MS I-20 CORRIDOR BY 23Z.

..SMITH.. 06/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...

LAT...LON 30289073 32599123 33999143 33778877 31468854 30448862
30058945 29839023 30289073

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