MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1218

ACUS11 KWNS 141957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141956
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-142130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL...NRN AND ERN MO...FAR SRN IA...WRN
IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141956Z - 142130Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY ABOUT 23Z OVER NRN MO/SRN
IA...THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MO AND EVENTUALLY WRN IL BY
LATE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE LIKELY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB...WITH
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD. TO THE E...A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXISTED ACROSS WRN MO...WHERE HEATING AND MIXING CONTINUES.
ALOFT...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELS EWD ACROSS NEB/KS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FROM NERN KS INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY NEAR THE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S F.
HERE...CAPPING IS LESS WITH COOLER 700 MB TEMPS...AND THIS IS ALSO
TRUE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ERUPTING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO
AND SRN IA DURING THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME...WITH RAPID EXPANSION SEWD
DURING THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WILL FAVOR ROTATION AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
AND FORM INTO A LARGER MCS WHICH WOULD TRAVEL SEWD INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 06/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40329521 40679509 41029489 41359447 41429367 41229269
40869179 40299096 39469020 38919004 38499018 38319069
37999179 38339278 38849318 39299375 39679462 39769507
40049523 40329521

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.