SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142036
OKZ000-TXZ000-142200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-SWRN OK / WRN N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142036Z - 142200Z
SCATTERED STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY BY 22-00Z.
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE MICROBURSTS WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT
POSSIBLE IN CNTRL-NERN OK. A WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL VORT LOBE--
ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL HIGH PLAINS S/WV TROUGH--IS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 20Z...WITH IT PROGRESSING EWD INTO CNTRL OK BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN
OK/NW TX WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN AGITATED FIELD OF ACCAS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ANVIL SPROUTS BEING
GENERATED FROM THE MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OKC METRO.
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE 90S INTO THE LOWER 100S
AS STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP AS DEWPOINTS
HOLD IN THE 52-58 RANGE SW TO THE 58-66 RANGE NE E OF THE DRYLINE.
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARDS
EARLIER SCTD STORM INITIATION...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY IN THE 22-23Z
TIMEFRAME.
AS VERY STEEP LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...PW/S NEAR 1 INCH ARE YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /AOA 1500 J/KG MLCAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. INCREASING
MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE
MICROBURSTS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL
CNTRL-NERN OK.
..SMITH.. 06/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34439990 36929684 36869601 36339532 35749553 33559853
33479939 33889995 34439990
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