SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161837
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-162030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN UT...NWRN CO AND SERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161837Z - 162030Z
STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT BASIN AREA INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE INCREASING FROM CNTRL-NERN UT INTO SERN WY IN
VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SUPPORTED BY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
IS MODEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AOB 800 J/KG
OWING TO MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
PROMOTE A DOWNBURST THREAT. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL ALSO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 06/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 41940641 42240496 41650447 41060477 40070689 39230893
38721035 38271190 39081230 39921083 40730908 41940641
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