MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1295

ACUS11 KWNS 191910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191909
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191909Z - 192115Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NERN CO
THROUGH SWRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL
THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SRN NEB WWD INTO NERN CO TO NEAR DENVER. A DRYLINE SEGMENT
EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO SERN CO. A SUPERCELL HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ALONG THE NERN CO/WRN NEB BORDER. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S...THIS STORM IS PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE WITH WARM SECTOR
OVER NERN CO IS STILL CAPPED AND TIMING OF ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...A MODEST ELY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT EXISTS NORTH OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN CO FRONT
RANGE...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS
CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LEAD IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NE OF
THIS AREA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...BUT ERN CO WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX BY EARLY
EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND 0-2
KM HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40040155 39340328 39870436 41040411 41700258 41530129
40710094 40040155

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