SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192052
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS THROUGH NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 192052Z - 192245Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NRN KS
INTO SRN NEB AND NWRN MO. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION
APPEARS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 22-01Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER
THIS EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.
FIELD OF CUMULUS IS INCREASING AND LIFTING NWD IN VICINITY OF
SHARPENING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN KS INTO NWRN MO. A
WARM EML WITH 14C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB HAS ADVECTED ABOVE UPPER
60S-70F DEWPOINTS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING HAVE
RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 J/KG
IN SWRN NEB TO 4000+ J/KG IN ERN KS. CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM EML INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT MAX PIVOTING
NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TOWARDS 00Z ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
SIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING.
..DIAL.. 06/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 38909488 39499874 39770146 40920081 40999875 40569657
40059503 39459419 38909488
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