SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231927
NYZ000-PAZ000-232130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN NY AND CENTRAL/NRN PA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231927Z - 232130Z
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH LINE OF INITIALLY NON-SVR
TSTMS MOVING ENEWD 30-35 KT ACROSS WRN PA AND FAR WRN NY...AS THAT
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER W-CENTRAL NY
AND CENTRAL PA. MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR
RME-BGM-IPT AXIS...AS OF 19Z...ALSO MAY PRODUCE SVR GUSTS AS THEY
MOVE EWD...WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE OWING TO STORM-SCALE
ROTATION AND RESULTANT UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM OFFSHORE NJ
CURVING NWWD OVER NRN NJ THEN NWD ACROSS ERN NY...PARALLEL TO AND W
OF HUDSON VALLEY. MOIST AXIS WAS ANALYZED W OF AND PARALLEL TO
FRONT...WITH SFC DEW POINTS RANGE GENERALLY FROM MID 70S OVER NRN
DELMARVA REGION TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F IN NRN NY. BETWEEN FRONT AND
WRN PA/NY CONVECTION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER CLOUD COVER MOVING
EWD AND ERODING. RELATED BOOST IN DIABATIC SFC HEATING..JUXTAPOSED
WITH ENHANCED DEW POINTS NEAR MOIST AXIS...OVERCOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL/NRN NY TO ABOUT 2500 J/KG OVER S-CENTRAL PA. 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR FRONT. AIR MASS E OF FRONT IS
RELATIVELY STABLE...WITH REINFORCEMENT BY EARLIER
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...SO SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH
EWD EXTENT ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY REGION.
..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 40548022 41937963 42627934 42847890 42947890 42987899
43097900 43097909 43327901 43487711 43387510 42537498
41257570 40267708 40548022
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